Monthly Market Report: September 2021
Over the past several months, our market reports have discussed how the U.S. housing market has been thrown off balance by severely constricted supply. With this edition, we’ll be examining current and future housing inventory signals to see if relief is on the way.
Let’s take a closer look.
U.S. housing inventory reached a 40-year low early this year, after more than a decade of steady decline.
In August, inventory increased for the fourth consecutive month, leading many to conclude that relief is finally here.
The end of federal mortgage forbearance programs is expected to lead to double-digit growth in inventory nationwide.
However, housing starts, and builder confidence dipped recently, dimming the outlook on future inventory.
Despite recent dips in lumber prices, large increases in other material costs leave the future of new housing projects uncertain.
Inventory is expected to recover the least at the lower price ranges, which traditionally drive the housing market.
Housing supply levels also vary greatly by state, with Oregon and California having the highest housing stock deficits.
2020 was an anomaly. But in 2021, seasonal rises in inventory arrived as expected; are we back to some kind of normal?
