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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest Employment Situation Summary last Thursday, and it again beat analysts’ expectations in a big way. The consensus was for 3,074,000 jobs to be added in June. The report revealed that 4,800,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% last month. Again, excellent news as the unemployment rate fell for the second consecutive month. However, there’s still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers as 17.8 million Americans remain unemployed.

Here are two interesting insights on the report:

What about a supposed misclassification?

The BLS addressed this at length in a blog post last week, and concluded by saying:

“Regardless of the assumptions we might make about misclassification, the trend in the unemployment rate over the period in question is the same; the rate increased in March & April and eased in May.”

They specifically noted the issue in the latest report by explaining that if they adjusted the rate for the potential miscalculation, it would increase from 11.1% to 12.1% (which is lower than the adjusted rate of 16.4% last month). They went on to say:

“However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.”

Does the shutdown of parts of the economy skew the unemployment numbers?

Because the uniqueness of 2020 impacts the employment situation in so many ways, each jobs report is now examined with a microscope to make sure the headlines generated by the report accurately convey what’s happening in the job market.

One such analysis is done by Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Indeed. He believes the extraordinary number of people in the “temporary” unemployed category confuses the broader issue of how many people have permanently lost their job. He adjusts for this when calculating his “core unemployment rate” (which subtracts temporary layoffs and adds unemployed who didn’t search for a job recently).

The bad news is that his analysis reveals that the number of permanently unemployed is still rising (from 4.6% in April to 5.9% last month). The good news, however, is when you use his methodology to look back at the Great Recession, today’s “core unemployment rate” is significantly lower (5.9% versus 10.5% in April 2010).

Bottom Line

Last week’s jobs report was much better than most expected. However, we should remain cautious in our optimism. As the Wall Street Journal explained in their analysis of the jobs report:

“U.S. job growth surged last month, underscoring the economy’s capacity for a quick rebound if businesses continue to reopen and consumers regain confidence. A recent coronavirus spike, however, could undermine trends captured in the latest jobs report.”

Why East Bay CA?

East Bay CA is known for it's good economy, beautiful landscapes and extremely popular housing market. When other states and territories have experienced decline in housing prices the Bay Area in general has remained strong. This doesn't mean you should not diversify your portfolio across many states, but East Bay CA Real Estate is certainly a strong place to start for a novice investor. There are even some great low cost homes that are ripe for renovation.

Range Homes Latest Unemployment Report: Great News…for the Most Part
A late November storm rushed through the Diablo Valley in just a few hours, but left some nice light in the sky as the sun set. This 1x4 ratio panorama (3600h x 10,800w) shows fine detail and no pixelation even when printed at 6ft wide. The fall colors from the planted street trees is at its best at this time of year. The native trees do not have fall color. This is the view from Dinosaur Hill Park looking east.

Need More Information About Range Homes?

Here at Range Homes, we have a team of friendly, helpful staff & agents that specialize in East Bay CA real estate and property sales that can help you work out how to best get your property portfolio started. Our Range Homes agents are here to put your needs first, get you the best deals and offers, help you buy or sell your dream home and build your investment portfolio. Reach out to our team today to find out your options.

If you are looking to find an East Bay Realtor, or looking for homes for sale in East Bay CA, or even to sell your home with someone who will make sure you get the best deal and understand your needs - look no further - when you work with us at Range Homes, consider yourself family.

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Mark Pages-Oliver, MBA – DRE:02020349 | Lisa Caldwell – DRE:01267745 | Range Homes – DRE:02111757

Mark Pages-Oliver, MBA – DRE:02020349

Lisa Caldwell – DRE:01267745

Range Homes – DRE:02111757

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Copyright 2021 © Range Homes.

All Rights Reserved | Privacy Policy

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